如果中国20年后有如下能力：

　　1 ）人民币国际化

　　2 ）完整的卫星网络

　　3 ）独立于外部世界的技术产业

　　到时候就没法“吓唬“中国了。

　　截至目前，中国还需依赖于美国和西方盟国提供的很多东西，也就是：卫星，货币和技术。

人民币国际化趋势已不可避免

　　In the future, the combined resources of China could very well exceed that of the US, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines combined in the coming decades. Meaning, China could build more missiles than all those countries combined.

　　 So, do you think that at that point anyone could intimidate China?

　　几十年后，中国的综合国力可能超过美国，日本，韩国和菲律宾这几个国家汇总起来的实力。这意味着，中国的导弹数量可能会比这些国家所有的导弹加起来还要多。

　　因此，你认为到那时谁还可以“吓唬”中国？

几十年后，中国的综合国力可能超过美国

　　So, in conclusion, yes, I agree, China will not start a conflict with the US and her allies. But 20 years from now, it will be the other way around, the US and her allies will then not want to start a conflict with China. And in both cases, it will be business as usual.

　　So, in the meantime, China should bump her defense spending from 2% of GDP to 5-7% of GDP. This provides jobs and subsidizes technology development.

　　我同意你的结论，中国现在不想挑起与美国及其盟国的冲突。但20年后，情形恰好相反，届时就是美国及其盟国不想与中国发生冲突。无论哪种情况，大家都生意照做。

　　因此，在此期间，中国应该将国防开支从GDP的2%增加到5-7 ％。这样会增加就业和提高技术。

　　I think with US backing, those countries do practice a bit of bravado. That is where the US treaties need to be diluted in the next couple of decades.

　　我认为，有了美国撑腰，那些国家都或多或少是虚张声势罢了。这就是为什么美国的防御条约在今后的几十年需要被淡化。

　　You bring up a good point, and yes, trade with China will continue to grow.